Gibraltar sees prediction markets as a substantial area of potential growth.

(AsiaGameHub) –   Gibraltar is exploring a new path to secure growth as it navigates headwinds brought on by the UK’s decision to raise gambling taxes.

Nigel Feetham, the British Overseas Territory’s Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, told parliament that the government had granted a license to a prediction markets firm, describing the sector as a “substantial area of potential growth” for Gibraltar.

Gibraltar’s government lobbied intensely against the UK’s choice to increase online gambling tax, arguing the move would directly hit tax revenues and negatively impact the island’s economy.

Nevertheless, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced that remote gaming duty will nearly double to 40%, taking effect from today (1 April). A new 25% general betting duty rate for remote betting will also be rolled out starting April 2027.

Feetham stated: “Following the implementation of the recent UK gambling duty hikes, I have taken on more direct responsibility for promoting Gibraltar’s regulatory offering.

“There is no space for complacency, nor for unnecessary delays when enabling responsible economic activity in these key sectors. We must keep adapting decisively to a shifting global economic landscape. This is fully aligned with the government’s core strategic goal of economic diversification.”

While Feetham has not yet publicly named the licensed firm in question, Predict Street Ltd has been added as a betting intermediary to the official register of approved licensed operators hosted on the Gibraltar government’s website.

Per Predict Street’s official site, the company is the official prediction market partner of the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup and is scheduled to launch on 9 April. However, no reference to the company appears anywhere on the official FIFA World Cup website.

Prediction market platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket have grown rapidly across the US, providing an alternative to standard online sports betting in states where the traditional vertical is currently prohibited.

That rapid rise has been met with controversy, however, as critics argue these platforms are facilitating betting activity illegally.

At the same time, a number of countries outside the US, including New Zealand, Australia and the Netherlands, have introduced explicit bans on prediction market operators.

As a result, Gibraltar stands out as one of the few jurisdictions outside the US that appears receptive to building a hub for prediction markets, pointing to the significant potential economic benefits the sector can deliver.

According to Eilers & Krejcik, prediction markets could see annual trading volumes hit one trillion dollars by 2030, a figure that underscores why Gibraltar is keen to take an open approach to the sector.

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